Bloc Québécois on the Chopping Block

Gilles Duceppe and his Bloc Québécois are their way up the steps. This is the election that could spell the end for the party that Lucien Bouchard founded 17 years ago.

The Bloquistes could easily lose a dozen or more seats to Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party, or just as easily pick up a handful of seats where they least expect. It all depends on three-way vote splits.

For the first time since the days of Brian Mulroney the Bloc is facing a new federalist adversary off the island of Montreal.

That’s where the election will be decided in Quebec – the 418 and 450 telephone code areas.

The West Island is still a Liberal stronghold; the east end is all-Bloc. The few seats along the cusp are up for grabs. Nothing has changed.

The Bloc got quite a surprise in the last CROP public opinion poll which revealed the Conservatives are virtually tied with the Bloc in the great horseshoe of ridings up above Montreal and down along the South side of the St. Lawrence, traditional Bloc country.

In the 2006 election there was a big vote swing to the Conservatives in the Quebec City area. It was an unexpected breakthrough, mainly due to the sponsorship scandal. But that’s over and the question now is whether the Conservatives can keep their gains and build on them.

The Bloc talks of making a comeback in the Ancienne Capitale and knocking off three Conservatives, Sylvie Boucher in Limoilou, Daniel Petit in Charlesbourg, and possibly Luc Harvey in Louis-Hébert.

The Conservatives in turn say they are on their way up and down the St. Lawrence, and have targetted several seats in the Chaudière-Appalaches and Trois-Rivières which they held in the Mulroney days.

If there is a real Conservative wave sweeping Quebec, Drummond, St. Hyacinthe and Arthabaska-Richmond could fall to Harper’s people -- maybe even several more seats in the Eastern Townships.

But with the Liberals still spoilers in many areas, and the New Democrats doubled in strength across Quebec, and the Greens coming on strong, there are so many possible vote splits that predictions are a mug’s game.

Little Brome-Missisquoi is a clear example. If Denis Paradis, a former Liberal MP, comes on really strong, he could knock off the Bloc’s sitting MP Christian Ouellet. But if Conservative candidate Mark Quinlan pulls in a lot of federalist votes, it could spell victory for Ouellet, unless Quinland is so strong that he beats out the other two candidates.

The Bloc strategy will be simple. Ease up a bit on the Quebec independence thing and come across as the best of all three progressive parties for Québécois.

Trouble is there are New Democrats in that slot and Greens too, and some Liberals see themselves as left-of-centre progressives.

It remains to be seen if the Bloc strategy will work. Otherwise say hello to a Harper majority government and watch out for your neck.

Richard Cléroux may be reached at richardcleroux@rogers.com