Rae not trusted on economy: Poll

According to the survey by Innovative Research Group, Rae was viewed as the worst of four possible Liberal leadership contenders to lead Canada through the current global economic crisis.

The poll results were given to The Canadian Press by a Liberal from a rival camp, just as Rae was preparing to formally declare his candidacy at a news conference Thursday.

The poll asked respondents who among Rae, Michael Ignatieff, Dominic LeBlanc and Martin Cauchon - who has since announced that he won't join the leadership race - would be worst suited to lead through the crisis.

Across Canada, 20 per cent picked Rae, compared to nine per cent for LeBlanc, eight per cent for Cauchon, and seven per cent for Ignatieff.

In Ontario, where Rae served as NDP premier from 1990-95, the results were even more pronounced. Twenty-six per cent picked Rae, compared to nine per cent each for Ignatieff and LeBlanc, and six per cent for Cauchon.

The telephone poll of 1,015 Canadians was conducted Nov. 5-10. It is considered accurate within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points 19 times in 20. The margin of error is larger for regional sub-samples.

Innovative Research said the poll was not commissioned by a rival leadership camp and was not intended to be made public. Managing director Greg Lyle said the question on Liberal contenders was tacked on to a weekly public affairs survey after a consultant for one client expressed interest in knowing how the economic management skills of the various candidates are being viewed.

Lyle said the results are not all bad for Rae.

"If I was one of his competitors, I'd say, 'Look at that, he's got the most baggage of anyone.' But if I was Bob Rae, I'd say, 'Look at that, 80 per cent forgot,"' Lyle said.

"Clearly, it's his weak spot compared to the other contenders but they might have hoped it's a weaker spot."

Rae declined comment on the poll. But he is acutely aware that his record of soaring deficits and labour unrest during his stint as Ontario premier is a liability.

He's poised to address the issue head-on at his campaign launch Thursday and in a subsequent speech Friday to the Canadian Club of Toronto.

One insider said Rae will attempt to "turn what people think is a weakness into a strength."

He is expected to argue that he's learned from past mistakes and that learning from experience is better than having no experience at all. Neither Ignatieff, a former Harvard academic, nor LeBlanc, a lawyer and eight-year backbencher, have ever been a member of cabinet, much less responsible for running a large economy.

Moreover, Rae is expected to argue that his record in Ontario is not all bad, that as a result of his initiatives the province emerged from the recession with the strongest economy in the country.

He is expected to surround himself at Friday's speech with some titans of business who will defend his economic record. His team is also poised to release names of some high-profile Liberals who are backing Rae, including former cabinet ministers Anne McLellan, Lloyd Axworthy, Lawrence MacAulay and Reg Alcock.

Still, many Liberals fear that Rae's economic record would provide an easy target for the ruling Conservatives.

During last month's federal election, the Tories pounced when Rae was deployed to help shore up Liberal Leader Stephane Dion's flagging campaign.

Jason Kenney, the Tory attack dog on the issue, ridiculed Dion for leaning on "the politician with the worst economic record in Ontario since the Great Depression."

Rae has said that he - along with most other political leaders in the country at the time - misjudged the depth and length of the recession that hit Canada in the early 1990s. He has also pointed out that the federal and other provincial governments ran up big deficits as the recession dragged on.

Ontario had racked up a small deficit of $700 million by the time Rae took office in late 1990. That soared to $9 billion in Rae's first budget as he opted to increase social spending in a bid to create jobs and soften the impact of the recession.

In subsequent years, Rae tried to rein in ballooning deficits by imposing a wage freeze on teachers, doctors, nurses and civil servants, and by forcing them to take 10 days off each year without pay, which became known derisively as "Rae days."

The change of heart led to labour upheaval and cost him the NDP's traditional support among public sector unions.

Rae's government was trounced in 1995.